Wage & Employment Data Cause Little Stir, Zloty Remains On Back Foot

EUR/PLN is easing off earlier highs (PLN4.6096) after the release of Poland's above-forecast wage data and below-forecast employment data. The pair remains firmer on the day on the back of a wider risk-off sentiment, last trading +75 pips at PLN4.6052.

• From a technical perspective, the rate remains in a clear downtrend, having probed the water under the PLN4.60 figure yesterday for the first time since Jun 2022. A dip through Jun 9, 2022 low of PLN4.5781 would support the bearish case. Meanwhile, the initial topside focus is on PLN4.6504, the 20-EMA.
• Today's data fell reasonably close to expectations. Average gross wages rose 12.6% Y/Y in March versus +12.4% expected after climbing 13.6% previously. Employment growth came in at +0.5% Y/Y, slowing from February's +0.8% and marginally undershooting the +0.6% consensus call.
• The data have had a virtually non-existent impact on NBP pricing. It is worth noting that the reaction function of an MPC majority led by Governor Adam Glapinski does not seem to be skewed in favour of aggressive inflation-fighting, with most policymakers preferring a more gradualist approach.
• POLGBs are marginally firmer across the curve, while the WIG20 is ~0.6% softer.