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Wage numbers in the DMP survey remain a concern

UK DATA
  • Mixed Decision Maker Panel data for September will be a little concerning for the BOE as expected wage growth and realized wage growth both picked up relative to August data. Particularly as the last MPC statement noted the divergence between official and survey wage data and that the survey data appeared to be moderating more than expected. Expected and realised price growth and 3-year ahead inflation expectations are all broadly unchanged.
  • The expected wage growth over the next year in the September dataset picked up on the single month-measure to 5.213% up a couple of tenths from 4.995% in August (which was the lowest since May 2022). The 3-month average marginally fell to 5.063% from 5.102% and continued its decline from a peak of 5.974% in the three-months to December 2022.
  • The realised wage growth over the past year also increased on the single-month measure to 7.059% in September from 6.868% in August and 6.654% in July, and was only marginally below the series high of 7.137% in June. The 3-month average remained broadly unchanged at 6.860% versus 6.886% in August, 6.846% in July and 6.820% in June.
  • Firms' mean expected own price growth for the next year was marginally lower at 4.375% on the single month metric in September (4.465% in August but down from 5.542% in July), the lowest since September 2021. The 3-month average fell to its lowest level since January 2022 at 4.794% (4.955% prior). The MPC will be encouraged by this.
  • Realised price-growth on the 3-month measure rounded to 7.4% for the third consecutive month.
  • 3-year ahead CPI expectations remained broadly unchanged on a single month basis at 3.244% in September, versus 3.169% in August (the 3-month average is now 3.249% down from 3.391%, another new low since the series began in May last year).
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