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Weak Labor Productivity Dials Up Inflationary Pressures

US DATA
  • Unit labor costs surged 6.3% annualized in Q1 (cons 5.6%) as nonfarm productivity was even weaker than expected at -2.7% annualized (-2.0%).
  • It’s the largest decline in productivity since a particularly weak 1H22, after which the level has broadly flatlined some 2.5% below where it was in 2021 and back at 2Q20 levels having jumped higher at the start of the pandemic.
  • With previously released ECI data showing private wage & salaries growing at 4.9% in Q1, this flat trend, let alone latest quarterly decline, in productivity adds to inflationary pressures from the labor market.

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