Week Ahead (4/4)

Against his backdrop, the race for the next Prime Minister will enter a crucial next phase. Today will see the final five candidates in the Conservative leadership contest (Mordaunt, Sunak, Truss, Badenoch and Tugendhat) whittled down to the final four (results expected around 20:00BST / 21:00CET).

• Further votes will be held in coming days with one candidate eliminated in each round before the final two candidates will be put before Conservative party members. The final two candidates are due to be finalised by Thursday at the latest, but if votes are held on consecutive days, we will get to the final two by Wednesday.
• Note that if any candidate receives 120 votes at any round, they will automatically progress to the final two.
• Penny Mordaunt is now odds on favourite to be the next Prime Minister, having overtaken Sunak following a YouGov poll of Conservative party members which showed Sunak losing to the remaining candidates in the membership vote.
• However, a JL Partners poll of Conservative voters (note: not party members) saw the highest proportion having a favourable view of Sunak as the next PM with 48% saying he would be a good PM vs 39% for Truss and 33% for Mordaunt. This suggests that the race is far from over.
• Today will also see a vote of no confidence in the government, but there is little chance it will pass. Results are expected at 22:00BST / 23:00CET.