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Westpac Lead Indicator Suggests Growth Stabilising Below Trend

AUSTRALIA DATA

The Westpac leading index for September rose 0.07% after falling -0.04% resulting in the 6-month annualised growth rate improving to -0.3% from -0.5%, the best result since August 2022 when the series turned negative. It continues to indicate that growth will be below trend through the first half of 2024.

  • Activity is stabilising but weaker equities and lower hours worked weighed on the index. US IP, widening of bond yields and steadying of building approvals have driven the improvement in the 6-month rate. Westpac also observes that the contribution from commodity prices has stabilised.
  • Westpac is forecasting GDP growth of 1.2% y/y in 2023 and 2024 after 3.7% in 2022, compared with population growth of 2.3%.
Westpac lead indicator vs GDP %

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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