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AUSSIE BONDS: Westpac write that "the rates mkt is facing a number of challenges
to the recent valuation status quo. These include the futures mkt trading
heavily as the Dec "turn" approaches, a flattening of the 3-10yr curve to the
bottom of recent ranges, the steepest 3-10yr swap EFP in weeks & a broad AU
rates underperformance across the term structure, not only against the US but
most other developed markets as well. In addition, the AUD has reached its
highest level since Aug. So, is the market undergoing a sig re-assessment of its
Australia's policy, growth & inflation outlooks? We do not think so. With even
the most hawkish of observers conceding that the RBA will be maintaining its
current policy setting for at least 6-9 months, there is little scope for short
end pricing, outright yields, curve shapes or spreads to materially breach the
ranges that have been in place throughout most of '18. While that makes the
market vulnerable to positioning squeezes, we remain buyers on the dip at the
short end, funding fears notwithstanding. We also think that the recent curve
flattening has largely run its course but that there may be some further
near-term pain in cross market spreads - at least until the AUD rally slows."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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