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What Matters Is The Dynamics of The Property Market, Not Evergrande

CHINA
  • In the past cycle, a reasonable amount of 'China skeptic' investors have been concerned about the overheating housing market, and that a significant deceleration in the Chinese property market could eventually lead to catastrophic consequences globally.
  • Hence, Evergrande's collapse following Beijing's strict deleveraging demands targeting the housing development sector has led to a rise in uncertainty over the outlook of the real estate market in China.
  • Even though Evergrande's total liabilities of 300bn USD may not directly represent a 'threat' to global asset classes, it is important to note that a sharp deceleration in China real estate market will mostly likely have a dramatic impact on the domestic economic activity and therefore to international risky assets.
  • This chart (source: GS) shows that China real estate market is by far the largest asset class globally, with a total value of 60tr USD.

Source: Goldman Sachs

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