What to watch

Happy Thanksgiving to our US clients. Of course for the rest of the market with the US out of the office we are likely to have constrained liquidity today and to a lesser extent tomorrow. The two main events of the day are the Riksbank meeting and the release of the ECB Accounts. However, the wider tone of the market may be set by any developments on Covid-19 cases across the Eurozone and the market remains vulnerable to any commodity price shocks.

• In terms of the Riksbank meeting, there is no expectation of any change in the repo rate and all of the focus will be on the repo rate forecast (which is expected to show a good probability of a hike in Q4-24 rather than the completely flat repo forecast that we had last month). And there will also be focus on the amount and composition of QE reinvestments in Q1-22.
• For the ECB Accounts, any discussion of the post-March programmes would be very closely examined by markets but we do not hold out much hope - instead expecting little to be market moving.
• We have a number of number of ECB and BOE speakers today - but all have either spoken very recently or are not due to speak on monpol.