What to Watch: NATO Headlines, Data Picks Up, Fed Speak

US FI markets trading weaker -- off recent lows on latest headlines from NATO summit re: preparing for "risk of Russian nuclear incidents" while the US/allies discuss "sending Ukraine anti-ship missiles". See 0754ET bullet.

• Tsy 30Y Bond back near the middle of Wed's range, 30YY +.0611 at 2.5453% (off 2.5751% recent high). Yield curves steeper in the short end, 5s10s still inverted: -2.189 last vs. -4.641 low; robust volumes (TYM2>460k). Short end pricing in increased chances of 50bp hike in early May (FOMC May 3-4).
  
• Equities firmer but scaling back on NATO headlines (SPX eminis +21.5 at 4469.0).
• Upcoming data at 0830ET:
  • Initial Jobless Claims (214k, 210k); Continuing Claims (1.419M, 1.400M)
  • Durable Goods Orders (1.6%, -0.6%); ex-trans (0.7%, 0.6%)
  • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.0, 0.5%), ship (1.9%, 0.8%)
  • Current Account Balance (-$214.8B, -$218.0B)
  • Markit PMIs at 0945ET:
  • US Manufacturing PMI (57.3, 56.6)
  • US Services PMI (56.5, 56.0)
  • US Composite PMI (55.9, 54.7)
• Followed by: Revisions: Wholesale Sales, Inventories at 1000ET; Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (29, 27) at 1100ET
• US Tsy supply: US Tsy $14B 10Y TIPS re-open (91282CDX6) at 1300ET
• Fed speakers:
  • MN Fed Kashkari eco-outlook, no text, moderated Q&A at 0830ET
    
  • Fed Gov Waller on housing mkt, text, moderated Q&A, at 0910ET
  • Chicago Fed Evans, eco/mon-pol outlook, text, Q&A at 0950ET
  • Atl Fed Bostic moderated discus minority participation in economics, 1100ET