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What to Watch: Eye on Weaker Crude; MNI PMI

MARKET INSIGHT

US FI markets trading firmer on decent volumes (TYM2>450k), curves steeper: 2s10s +3.002 at 6.185 after inverting briefly Tuesday, 5s10s +1.052 but still inverted at -8.228. Jun 30Y futures near early London highs of 150-03 at 149-31 (+17), 30YY at 2.4545, -.0198.

  • Focus on oil: Crude weaker on talk of oil reserves release, US Pres Biden will speak about gas prices, SPR release at 1330ET. Livestream link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
  • Meanwhile, "OPEC+ Will Stick To Existing Plan For Oil Output" Reuters
  • Flurry of Data at 0830ET
    • Initial Jobless Claims (187k, 196k); Continuing Claims (1.350M, 1.340M)
    • Personal Income (0.0%, 0.5%)
    • Personal Spending (2.1%, 0.5%)
    • Real Personal Spending (1.5%, -0.2%)
    • PCE Deflator MoM (0.6%, 0.6%); YoY (6.1%, 6.4%)
    • PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); YoY (5.2%, 5.5%)
    • At 0945ET: MNI Chicago PMI (56.3, 57.0)
  • US Tsy auctions $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
  • Fed speak:
    • NY Fed Williams opening remarks: future of NY conf, NY Fed at 0900ET

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