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What to watch

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Through the morning session the most notable releases will be the manufacturing PMIs. We will get first prints from Spain and Italy as well as final prints from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. Big surprises are probably needed to illicit a lasting market reaction.
  • More important will be the ISM manufacturing print at 15:00BST / 16:00CET with JOLTs data due to be released simultaneously.
  • This afternoon will also see the Bank of Canada rate decision which is widely expected to see a 50bp hike. There will be no press conference, only a statement released alongside the decision. The statement is likely to maintain its hawkish tone to keep inflation expectations from deanchoring but offer little in the way of new guidance – i.e. rates need to increase further with timing and pace guided by the inflation target. Hawkish surprises could come from language around moving further into excess demand or inflation being increasingly persistent and broad-based, but the market is likely more sensitive to dovish commentary concerning the global growth backdrop and/or moderation in Canadian housing activity.
  • In addition there are a number of speakers today: ECB's Knot, Lagarde, Villeroy, Panetta and Lane; Fed's Williams and Bullard and Riksbank's Breman.
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