What to Watch: Hot CPI

Tsys trading mixed on modest volumes (TYU2<275k), curves broadly flatter (2s10s -5.540 at 17.104) in lead-up to headline inflation metric:

• Data on tap at 0830ET
  • CPI MoM (0.3%, 0.7%); YoY (8.3%, 8.2%)
  • CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.6%, 0.5%); YoY (6.2%, 5.9%)
  • CPI Index NSA (289.109, 291.689)
  • CPI Core Index SA (290.455, 291.945)
  • Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-2.6%, --); Weekly (-3.4%, --) followed by:
  • U. of Mich. Sentiment (58.4, 58.2) at 1000ET
  • Monthly Budget Statement (-$132.0B, -$136.5B) at 1400ET
• No Fed speakers: Fed in blackout through June 16
• US Tsys auctions: Resume Monday w/ $42B 13W, $42B 26W bills
• Cross-Asset: Stocks mildly weaker, near recent lows (ESM2 -6.25 at 4010.0). Crude firmer (WTI +.83 at 122.34). Gold weaker at 1843.01 -4.94.
• Geopol: Def Sec 'Called On China To Refrain From Destabilising Taiwan Actions': Pentagon releases a readout following Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III's meeting with Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe. The Secretary reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Strait, opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo, and called on the PRC to refrain from further destabilising actions toward Taiwan."