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Pullback Considered Corrective


Corrective Cycle


Corrective Bounce


Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

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What to Watch: ECB Annc, Weekly Claims, 10Y TIPs, Earnings


Tsy futures trading mildly weaker, inside narrow overnight range on light volumes (TYU2<255k) as markets await ECB rate annc at 0815ET, ECB Pres Lagarde's press conf at 0845ET, 25bp hike widely exp. Fed rate hike expectations of 75bp next week Wednesday (as well as the Sep meeting) holding steady - data between now and then unlikely to sway exp.

  • Data coming up at 0830ET:
    • Initial Jobless Claims (244k, 240k)
    • Continuing Claims (1.331M, 1.340M)
    • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (-3.3, 1.5) followed by
    • Leading Index (-0.4%, -0.6%) at 1000ET
  • Tsy auctions:
    • US Tsy $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
    • US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS auction re-open (91282CEZ0) at 1300ET
  • Equities: Trading mildly weaker at the moment, ESU2 -9.0 at 3953.50 after trading over 50-DMA yesterday. Ongoing earnings releases proving positive: Dow Inc (DOW) $2.31 vs. $2.145 est, DR Horton (DHI) $4.67 vs. $4.473, ATT (T) $0.65 vs. $0.616, AutoNation (AN) $6.48 vs. $6.185, Marsh & McLennan (MMC) $1.91 vs. $1.856. American Airlines (AAL) near in-line at $0.76 vs $0.764 est.
  • Sampling of post-close annc's: Boston Beer (SAM) $4.423 est, PPG Ind $1.752 est, Tenet Healthcare (THC) $0.827 est, Seagate (STX) $1.9132 est, SVB Financial (SIVB) $7.723.
  • Cross asset: US$ bounce weighing on spot Gold (-15.25, 1681.33), Crude broadly weaker (WTI -4.03 at 95.85).

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