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What to Watch

US TSYS
Modest improvement in risk sentiment after China said it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers in early January - Tsys drifting near overnight lows on very light volumes (TYH3<85k).
  • Carry-over weakness w/ US$ index lowest levels in six months, extended losses from last week when data showed that US core PCE prices, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, fell to a four-month low of 4.7% YoY in Nov.
  • Over the weekend Klaas Knot told the FT, "...with five policy meetings between now and July 2023, the ECB would achieve 'quite a decent pace of tightening' through half percentage point rises in the months ahead before borrowing costs eventually peaked by the summer." - ECB playbook w/ US curve is projecting the same, w/ peak rate projected by the US Fed Fund curve being May and June'23 contracts at 95.07 or 4.93%.
  • Upcoming data at 0830ET (prior, est): Retail Inventories MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%); Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$99.0B, -$96.3B). Followed by FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.8%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-1.24%, -1.20%); YoY (10.43%, 8.0%) at 1000ET; Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-14.4, -15.0) at 1030ET.
  • Busy day for Tsy auctions: US Tsy $54B 13W, $45B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET; US Tsy $ 42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGD7) w/ $34B 52W bill auction at 1300ET.

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