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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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What to watch

BOE
  • Statement/Minutes release: 12:00BST / 7:00ET
  • Summary/Minutes: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/june-2024
  • There is no press conference as this is a non-MPR meeting. Also note that due to the election communications blackout there will not be the usual media follow ups from Governor Bailey (or any other MPC members).
  • The format of the Statement / Minutes will not be impacted by the election blackout.
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that despite services CPI surprising to the upside yesterday, we are likely to see unchanged guidance and a repeat of last month's 7-2 vote (with Dhingra and Ramsden voting for cuts). But an 8-1 cut cannot be entirely ruled out - and in our view is more likely than 6-3.
  • If Ramsden switches to voting for rates on hold we think there will be a decent market reaction - despite the market only pricing in 18bp for September and 43bp by year-end.
  • However, we would expect an even larger reaction if the vote comes in at 6-3 (unless Broadbent is the additional member voting for a cut).
  • Any changes to the guidance in either direction also have the potential to be market moving - as does any change of language around inflation persistence following the higher services CPI prints.
  • For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.
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