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What to Watch: S&P PMIs, ISMs, Treasury Auctions Early and Often

  • Back to watching data with potential default risk deferred to mid-2025 after President Biden signed the debt ceiling bill over the weekend.
  • Flurry of data kicks off with S&P Global PMIs at 0945ET, followed by ISMs and Durables/Cap-Goods Orders at 1000ET.
  • US Tsy bill supply early and often, as expected the Treasury moves to increase cash buffers following a debt ceiling resolution: $65B 13W, $58B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET followed by $50B 44D CMB auction at 1300ET.
    Bloomberg had e
  • Bloomberg had estimated incoming supply to be "well over $1 trillion by the end of the third quarter" that's likely to "quickly drain liquidity from the banking sector, raise short-term funding rates and tighten the screws on the US economy just as it’s on the cusp of recession."
  • Bank of America estimated incoming Treasury supply "would have the same economic impact as a quarter-point interest-rate hike."

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