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What to watch: UK (2/2)

OUTLOOK
  • In addition to being influenced by Eurozone data and ECB pricing, UK markets have a number of noteworthy events of their own today.
  • At 9:30GMT the BOE will release its latest Decision Marker Panel data. These data are frequently mentioned by MPC members and are closely watched. The data are often published alongside MPC meetings, but as the data is monthly and there are only 8 meetings per year, this is one of the occasions where the data will be released outside of that cycle.
  • There are also two MPC members making appearances today. Probably the most important from a market standpoint will be Pill's speech at 15:00GMT which is entitled "2023 economic outlook – a year of growth or survival?" Pill is one of the more centrist members of the MPC - unlike Mann, Ramsden and Haskel he has never hawkisly dissented - but out of the remaining members is probably viewed as the most hawkish. Therefore a March hike would likely require Pill to be on board. Note that in his previous speech on 9 February he said that it was "critical to see it through" but he also seemed to be leaning towards rates being on hold if there were no surprises in the data (in line with the Bank's February MPR guidance). Given the tone of his recent speeches, he is likely to sound a bit more hawkish than Bailey did yesterday.
  • Tenreyro is due to appear on a panel today on regulation. She probably won't mention monetary policy in the appearance, but even if she does she voted for no hike in February so her views aren't consistent with the majority of the Committee.
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