What will gilt issuance for 2020/21 be?.......>

GILTS: What will gilt issuance for 2020/21 be? Most previews that we have read

see gross issuance around the GBP155-166bln range, although Nomura notably look

for a larger GBP185bln. We estimate that gilt issuance will be GBP165bln.

- We look for issuance to be tilted more towards short- and medium-dated gilts

rather than linkers.

- In 2019/20, short issuance was originally expected to be 27.5% (ignoring the

unallocated portion) but that has risen to 31.9% in the January update. We look

for this to rise to 33.6%.

- We expect small reductions in the percentage of medium and long-dated issuance

(so a larger sterling amount). The reductions in the percentage split are likely

to come through the syndication programme in our view. We look for 3 smaller

linker syndications totalling GBP9.6bln and 3-4 conventional syndications

totalling GBP14.9bln.

- See the table for previous announced issuance and our estimates for 2020/21:

https://emedia.marketnews.com/Gilt_Iss.PNG