Where EUR OIS rates appear to have settled.......>

UK: Where EUR OIS rates appear to have settled down over the last week, the

SONIA curve has become more volatile, which has upended the previously smooth

profile of the implied forward rates. Moreover, despite the still bewildering

lack of clarity over the most likely Brexit path (with different permutations

resulting in potentially diametrically opposed economic outcomes), rate

expectations have been further scaled back. PINCH now estimates a 66.5%

probability of a 25bps hike by December 2019, down from 79.2% last week. It is

also worth highlighting the jump in probability observed at the May-2019 meeting

which will be the first time that the Bank of England meets after the UK is due

to leave the EU on March 29. 

- Please see: http://marketnews-m.objects.xtenit.com/MNI_PINCH_UPDATE.pdf