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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- This morning , economic showed that Hungary CPI inflation accelerated to 7.9% YoY (vs. 7.4%) up from 7.4% the previous month, currently standing at its highest level since August 2007.
- Even though the recent HUF strength has reduced the pressure on NBH policymakers to continue their tightening through the 1W depo rate, persistent and higher than expected inflation could lead to another positive surprise at the next meeting.
- Hungarian policymakers have made it clear that they will do whatever is needed to ease inflationary pressures, which Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy called a ‘public enemy’.
- Until now, we expected the 1W depo rate to be raised by 30bps in the February and March meeting, which would levitate the effective policy rate to 4.9% by the end of March.
- The NBH is likely to proceed with 50bps hikes in the ‘core’ policy rate (currently at 2.9%), implying that the core policy rate would converge towards the 1W depo rate in four meetings (end of May).
- HUF is nearly unchanged following the CPI release; however, a more ‘hawkish’ repricing in the terminal rate (i.e. strictly above 5%) could support the forint in the near term.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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