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Williams On Difficulty Of Estimating Neutral Rate

FED
  • NY Fed's Williams (voter) notes that the Fed's rate hikes should help ease inflation without causing a higher unemployment rate, adding in Q&A that he foresees a path forward for a 'softish landing' in line with Powell as demand is pulled down to the supply level.
  • The frontloaded approach to hikes is seen as 'important' but he's less candid than other FOMC members on where the neutral rate is, noting "it's really hard to estimate where the neutral rate is" per Bloomberg.
  • The latter could imply a need for greater flexibility or possibly earlier pause when it comes to assessing the impact of a front-loaded path after a few meetings, but it's not particularly new in that Williams has previously given a wider range of neutral rates at 2-2.5% compared to most other members.
  • Fed Funds futures give back most of the small rise from his initial comments, sitting close to overnight lows with 52bp for June, 97.5bp for July and 182bps to year-end.
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