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Won Retreats As BoK Holds Rates, Russian Invasion Roils Risk

KRW

Spot USD/KRW has rallied in the wake of today's BoK monetary policy decision and a flight to safety caused by Russia's escalating incursion into Ukrainian territory. The rate last sits +6.65 figs at KRW1,200.20, with bulls taking aim at Jan 28 high of KRW1,207.25. Bears look for a pullback under the 100-DMA, which intersects at KRW1,187.80.

  • USD/KRW 1-month NDF last +8.30 figs at KRW1,201.55. Gains past Feb 11 high of KRw1,202.60 would open up Jan 28 high of KRW1,214.39. Bears keep an eye on the 100-DMA at KRW1,189.32.
  • The BoK left their policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, with Gov Lee warning that inflation will stay comfortably above +3.0% Y/Y for a considerable time to come (see earlier bullets for a summary). Reference to the downside economic risk posed by the Ukraine situation and recognition that the decision was unanimous, which provided a dovish start to Lee’s final post-decision press conference as BoK Governor, with the Bank seemingly wanting to promote a smooth handover to Lee’s successor.
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