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Wrightson ICAP Sees ON RRP Takeup Hitting $475B At End-Month

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Wrightson ICAP got it close on their estimate for Tuesday's RRP volume surge to $433B (on Monday, they had forecast $425B), and anticipate totals rising further into end-month: to $475B (they'd previously expected $450B peak into the holiday weekend).

  • They saw the biggest surprise in yesterday's data that the Treasury General Account didn't fall further Monday (it rose $8B), among other reasons because COVID payments to state/local gov'ts "slowed to a trickle". This meant the surge in RRP volume (we saw $395B takeup on Monday too) was not directly related to new federal cash being pushed into the market.
  • That noted, Wrightson ICAP still expects "a massive wave" of payments to local gov'ts in the coming weeks.


Source: US Treasury, NY Fed, MNI

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