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AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is edging lower today with rising US crude inventories

AMERICAS OIL
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WTI crude is edging lower today with rising US crude inventories and oversupply concerns combined with a slightly stronger USD index (+0.1%) to limit upside pressure. Rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies have been supporting oil markets as the market weighs the impact of US tariffs. 

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a "return to intense fighting" if Hamas does not return Israeli hostages by Saturday.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude shipments fall suggesting further signs of disruption after the latest US sanctions announced on Jan. 10, although also impacted by weather, according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
  • The EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026 with global oil demand in 2025 stable at 104.1mb/d. OPEC’s monthly report is published today and the IEA’s on Thursday.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.5mbbl and with a small build for gasoline and small draw for distillates. Flows from Canada to the US have been rising ahead of potential tariffs. API data yesterday showed a large crude stock build of 9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks fell 2.5mbbl and distillates fell 0.6mbbl.
  • January US CPI is due today and Bloomberg consensus is expecting no change in the headline at 2.9% but for core to ease 0.1pp to 3.1%
  • API reported crude stocks rose 9mbbl last week; Cushing stocks rose 0.4mbbl, gasoline fell 2.5mbbl, distillates fell 0.6mbbl.
  • EU trade ministers will hold an emergency meeting this afternoon to discuss Trump’s metal tariffs.
  • Global crude stocks have fallen to the lowest level since at least January 2017 at 3.240mbbl in early February, according to Kpler.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are higher on the day amid ongoing trade tensions and ahead of an active spring maintenance season.
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.1% at 72.51$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 17.31$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 32.70$/bbl
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WTI crude is edging lower today with rising US crude inventories and oversupply concerns combined with a slightly stronger USD index (+0.1%) to limit upside pressure. Rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies have been supporting oil markets as the market weighs the impact of US tariffs. 

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a "return to intense fighting" if Hamas does not return Israeli hostages by Saturday.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude shipments fall suggesting further signs of disruption after the latest US sanctions announced on Jan. 10, although also impacted by weather, according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
  • The EIA STEO increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026 with global oil demand in 2025 stable at 104.1mb/d. OPEC’s monthly report is published today and the IEA’s on Thursday.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 2.5mbbl and with a small build for gasoline and small draw for distillates. Flows from Canada to the US have been rising ahead of potential tariffs. API data yesterday showed a large crude stock build of 9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks fell 2.5mbbl and distillates fell 0.6mbbl.
  • January US CPI is due today and Bloomberg consensus is expecting no change in the headline at 2.9% but for core to ease 0.1pp to 3.1%
  • API reported crude stocks rose 9mbbl last week; Cushing stocks rose 0.4mbbl, gasoline fell 2.5mbbl, distillates fell 0.6mbbl.
  • EU trade ministers will hold an emergency meeting this afternoon to discuss Trump’s metal tariffs.
  • Global crude stocks have fallen to the lowest level since at least January 2017 at 3.240mbbl in early February, according to Kpler.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are higher on the day amid ongoing trade tensions and ahead of an active spring maintenance season.
    • WTI MAR 25 down 1.1% at 72.51$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 17.31$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 32.70$/bbl