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WTI Tests Bear Trigger On Recession Fears, Stronger USD

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  • Crude oil sees WTI hit a 7-week low and Brent fall below $90 for the first time since October on recession fears with risk sentiment suffering as the US dollar firms and Treasury yields rise, stoked initially on renewed hawkish Fedspeak from Bullard. The spread between WTI futures for Dec and Jan delivery hits lows since Dec'21, seen on a pullback of bullish positions that had been built ahead of Europe's ban on Russian oil imports.
  • On the latter, ahead of the G7 Dec 5 ban on Russian imports, the US is set to issue oil price cap guidance in the coming days according to Reuters, approaching it with a “spirit of flexibility” with the State Department ready for some “hiccups” along the way.
  • WTI is -4.6% at $81.65 with a low of $81.40 that came close to testing the bear trigger of $81.30 (Oct 18 low). The day’s most active strikes in the CLZ2 are seen in $70/bbl puts followed by $75/bbl puts.
  • Brent is -3.3% at $89.80, clearing key support at $91.53 (Nov 15 low) and moving closer to the bear trigger at $87.52 (Oct 18 low).
  • Gold is -0.7% at $1761.02, moving slightly closer to support at $1729.5 (Oct 4 high) with a low of $1754.55 and going against technicals that looked bullish.
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  • Crude oil sees WTI hit a 7-week low and Brent fall below $90 for the first time since October on recession fears with risk sentiment suffering as the US dollar firms and Treasury yields rise, stoked initially on renewed hawkish Fedspeak from Bullard. The spread between WTI futures for Dec and Jan delivery hits lows since Dec'21, seen on a pullback of bullish positions that had been built ahead of Europe's ban on Russian oil imports.
  • On the latter, ahead of the G7 Dec 5 ban on Russian imports, the US is set to issue oil price cap guidance in the coming days according to Reuters, approaching it with a “spirit of flexibility” with the State Department ready for some “hiccups” along the way.
  • WTI is -4.6% at $81.65 with a low of $81.40 that came close to testing the bear trigger of $81.30 (Oct 18 low). The day’s most active strikes in the CLZ2 are seen in $70/bbl puts followed by $75/bbl puts.
  • Brent is -3.3% at $89.80, clearing key support at $91.53 (Nov 15 low) and moving closer to the bear trigger at $87.52 (Oct 18 low).
  • Gold is -0.7% at $1761.02, moving slightly closer to support at $1729.5 (Oct 4 high) with a low of $1754.55 and going against technicals that looked bullish.