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Year-on-Year Inflation Expected to Edge Above CBR Forecast

RUSSIA
Inflation data for November will be released Friday afternoon (1600GMT/1900 local time), where the headline figure is expected to increase from +6.69% y/y in October to +7.53%. The data precedes the final CBR meeting of the year on Dec 12.
  • Goldman Sachs expect inflation to continue rising to +7.6% y/y. In their view, the inflationary pressures are largely due to elevated levels of domestic demand spurred on by loose fiscal and monetary policy in H1-23.
  • Given that GS expect headline inflation to have already surpassed the +7.5% y/y upper bound for year-end inflation in the CBR’s October medium-term forecast and recent CBR MPC decisions proving more hawkish than prior guidance, they now expect a 200bp hike at the monetary policy meeting in December.
  • UniCredit say recent weekly inflation readings of +0.33% week-on-week make it almost unavoidable that monthly inflation in November exceeds +1%. This, in turn would result in inflation of +7.2% y/y. In their view, sources of concern are higher inflation expectations and business decisions.
  • UniCredit expect the CBR to hike by 50bp in December. They say this would be enough to cool borrowing appetite and help stimulate savings, adding that the CBR is likely to start policy easing in 2H24.
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