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Zloty Advances Along Regional Peers, POLGB Yields Climb

PLN

EUR/PLN operates -41 pips at PLN4.6755 and familiar technical levels remain in play. Bears look for a sell-off past Mar 1 low of PLN4.6620. Bulls keep an eye on Mar 20 high of PLN4.7215, followed by the 50% retracement of the Feb 14 - Mar 1 bear leg at PLN4.7304.

  • Zloty strength comes amid gains for the broader regional FX space, with the likes of HUF, PLN, RON and CZK sitting atop the EMEA scoreboard.
  • POLGB curve has bear steepened, with yields last seen 5.2-7.4bp higher. Local equity benchmark WIG20 has added ~2% and has now recouped 50% of its Jan 11 - Mar 20 downleg.
  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.3 in March from 48.5 prior, marginally beating the 48.1 consensus call.
  • The NBP will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with virtually all analysts calling for no change to the main parameters. Governor Glapinski will hold his press conference on Thursday, while the minutes of the previous meeting will be published on Friday.

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