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UK: Week Ahead

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Zloty Corrects Earlier Advance, Current Account Data On Tap

PLN

Market reaction to yesterday's Fed decision and accompanying rhetoric allowed EUR/PLN to dip to a fresh cyclical low of 4.2935 as EM FX space benefited from the prospect of earlier rate cuts in the US. The rate has corrected the move this morning and last operates at 4.3061, 62 pips higher on the day.

  • From a technical perspective, a break above the 20-EMA at 4.3468 would support the case for a firmer rebound. However, bears remain in control for now, with the focus falling on Mar 4, 2020 low of 4.2870.
  • POLGB yields are 14.4-19.6bp lower, curve runs flatter as we type, despite ticking away from lows. FRA contracts have faltered, with 12x15 contracts hitting worst levels since early October. The WIG20 has added 0.7% but the WIGBANK Index sits slightly below neutral levels.
  • Prime Minister Tusk signalled the potential for making progress on unlocking access to frozen EU funds, with Budget Commissioner Hahn speaking in a similar vein. The leader will meet with Commission President von der Leyen on Friday to discuss the matter.
  • Poland will report its current account balance for October at 13:00GMT/14:00CET.
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