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Zloty Remains Stable Over Core CPI Release

PLN

EUR/PLN has paid little attention to the release of Polish core CPI, which accelerated to +12.4% Y/Y in March from +12.0% prior versus +12.2% expected. The view of NBP Governor Glapinski (seemingly shared by most MPC members) is that core inflation will eventually ease, but with a delay relative to headline inflation. Hence, the latest outturn for core CPI is unlikely to move the needle for the central bank, with NBP rate pricing virtually unchanged.

  • When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades -117 pips at PLN4.6294 after probing the water under key support from Dec 26 low of PLN4.6270. A clean break here would support the bearish case, opening up the PLN4.60 handle.
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