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Labor Market Unsustainably Hot

US TSYS

Rates finish weaker Thursday, well off midday lows to near middle of the range. Yield curves bear flattened (2s10s -2.373 at 22.675 vs. 20.661 low) after a brief steepening period in the first half as bonds extended session lows around midday (30YY taps 2.9845% high).

  • Of note: 5YY climbed over 3.0% to 3.0123% high - last seen in Nov 2018.
  • Little react to weekly claims at 184k, 2k less than est, continuing claims 1.417M some 58k lower than est.
  • Late Fed speak: Fed Chairman Powell comments, while hawkish, weren't exceedingly so as he intimated 50bp is on the table for May 4 FOMC. Powell did say labor market is "unsustainably hot". Markets pricing in two additional 50 bps through June and July meetings.
  • StL Fed Bullard also weighing in on hikes: the "world would not come to an end" if Fed anncd a 75bp hike. That said, Bullard expressed sentiment the "bond market is not looking like a safe place to be" while the Fed "should avoid disruptions from surprise market moves."
  • No scheduled Fed speakers for Friday as yet - but like SF Fed Daly interview on Yahoo Finance today, there is a good chance of more popping up ahead policy blackout that starts late Friday.
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