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Retail sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK retail sales data is due at 7:00BST this morning. The median of consensus looks for a -0.3%M/M headline print (although the mode looks for -0.2%M/M. Most analysts sit in a -1.0%M/M to +0.1%M/M range.
  • For the excluding fuel figures, the median of consensus if -0.4%M/M and most analysts sit in a similar range of -1.0%M/M to +0.2%M/M.
  • Markets saw a significant repricing at the front-end yesterday after hawkish comments from external MPC member Catherine Mann who seemed to be deciding between whether a 25bp or a 50bp hike would be be appropriate in two weeks time (although note she was already among the hawks so doesn't necessarily represent the consensus of the MPC). Governor Bailey's comments later largely came after UK FI markets were closed but gave little new information on his views.
  • A very strong retail sales figure could help build the case for a 50bp hike in May, but note that the squeeze on cost of living begun to hit more in April with the increase of the energy price cap and NIC increase appling from 1 April. With markets already pricing in around a 50% probability of a May 50bp hike (and 25bp fully priced), it will be hard to see pricing move too much higher off of today's print. However, a really poor print could see a bit more of an unwind from yesterday's move. Either way, we probably need a significant surprise for a notable market move, and the move is likely to come more at 7:30BST when SONIA markets open.
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