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SEB investor survey points to no hike next week

RIKSBANK
  • The SEB investor survey ahead of Thursday's Riksbank meeting shows that "almost 70% expects unchanged policy rate in April, but a small minority predicts a 50bps hike."
  • Almost all investors expected the repo rate to be raised to positive territory by or before the June meeting.
  • "Average and median forecast is that the Riksbank will forecast approximately 3 hikes both this and next year. Expectations are skewed to the high side, and a few predict the rate path will exceed current market pricing."
  • Investors expect a further 3 hikes in 2023.
  • Regarding QE "purchases are expected to be lowered to approximately SEK 20bn in Q3 and further to SEK 10bn in Q4. A few (21%) predict that the purchases will be lowered to zero already in Q3."

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