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Markets Eye Potential -200bp CBR Rate Cut to 15.00% as RUB Gains

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN trades -0.85% lower this morning, holding just above the 76.00 handle after failing to close below the level on Friday.
  • The cross fell roughly 7% last week to consolidate the move below 80.00 as we look to the CBR on Friday.
  • Last week Nabiullina hinted at more potential rate cuts in the pipeline at the meeting to offset temporary measures to protect the RUB, which has strengthened significantly in recent weeks.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads currently reflect -169bp in cuts priced in ahead of the meeting, but some analysts see scope for a -200bp cut to target the 15.00% mark for the key rate, with uncertainty still notably high amid the ongoing conflict.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosp Spread


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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