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GS Expecting a 100bps Hike in ‘Base’ Rate and 30bps Hike in Depo Rate

  • The Monetary Council of the MNB will meet on Tuesday, April 26. GS forecasts the MNB to raise the base rate by 100bp to +5.40% (consensus: +5.40%).
  • Given the stabilization in the exchange rate and the downside surprise to the March inflation print, the immediate pressures to tighten policy at the short end have likely abated.
  • Reflecting this, GS base case is for the Council to deliver only a 30bp rate hike to the 1-week depo rate to +6.45%, the rate anchoring the money market.

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