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Price Signal Summary - USD Resumes Its Uptrend

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and are trading lower once again today. This has confirmed a resumption of the current primary downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 4200.00 next and the key supports at 4129.50, Mar 15 low and 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are under pressure too this morning. This follows a failure last week to hold on to the week’s highs. Support at 3684.00, Apr 12 low, has been breached and this opens 3626.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable and has traded lower this morning, clearing support at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low and a short-term bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a move towards 1.0636 next, the Mar 23 2020 low and the next major support. GBPUSD is under pressure again this morning as it continues to slide. The break on Friday of former support at 1.2974, Apr 13 low, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.2699, 1.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. USDJPY is unchanged and trend conditions remain bullish. The focus is on 129.44 next, 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Sights are also on the psychological 130.00 handle.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is lower today and the yellow metal has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, at $1927.7. The pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), highlights a bearish threat and attention is on key support that lies at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. This level also represents an important bear trigger. In the Oil space, WTI futures are trading lower today and price has probed the 50-day EMA, at $97.80 today. A clear break of the average would strengthen the bearish threat and suggest scope for a deeper decline towards $90.37, the Mar 15 low.
  • The trend condition in the FI space is unchanged and remains bearish. Bund futures delivered another fresh cycle low Friday. The focus is on 153.00 next. Short-term gains in Gilts are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open 117.04, 0.764 projection of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing.
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