Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday sees the UK PSF numbers due, followed by US durable goods, consumer confidence and new home sales in the afternoon. No key data is on the schedule for the Eurozone.
UK Public Sector Finances (0700 BST)
UK public sector borrowing is seen falling to GBP19.8b in March, down markedly from the GBP26.9 billion recorded in the same month a year earlier. This is up from GBP13.1b borrowed in February when receipts were likely boosted by late self-assessment tax receipts.
Rising interest rate payments introduce an upside risk to borrowing, with the retail price index rising by 0.3 percentage points between December and January to 7.8%. Interest rate payments rose by GBP2.8 billion in the year to February to GBP8.2 billion, following a 0.4 percentage point rise in the RPI between November and December.
Value-added tax receipts have held up well in recent months, standing GBP1.2 billion above pre-pandemic levels in February, and could provide a boost to government takings in March.
US Durable Goods Orders (1330 BST)
The preliminary March print sees durable goods orders recover to +1.0% m/m, following the -2.1% m/m contraction seen in February. This was the strongest contraction seen since April 2020, with machinery and primary metals the key downwards drivers.
US Consumer Confidence / New Home Sales (1500 BST)
US consumer confidence is projected to improve to 108.4 in April, in the second month of recovery following the 1.5-point uptick to 107.2 in March. The indicator remains the lowest since February 2021. Consumer confidence began to pick up in the Eurozone in April but slumped further in the UK. Both remain negative. Less severe pessimism was the upwards driver in the Eurozone, and today’s US data will be vital in assessing a more global picture.
New home sales are set to soften in March by 7k to 765k for the month. The consensus is looking for a contraction of -0.9% m/m, more moderate than -2.0% m/m in February. Rising mortgage rates and inflation running hot at +8.5% y/y see a considerable squeeze in disposable income, adding downside risks to these projections.
The BOC’s Deputy Lane is the only key policymaker appearance on today’s schedule, with the Fed and BOE entering their blackout periods.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 26/04/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 26/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | durable goods new orders |
| 26/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 26/04/2022 | 1245/0845 |  | CA | BOC Deputy Lane panel talk | |
| 26/04/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 26/04/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 26/04/2022 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 26/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 26/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 26/04/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 26/04/2022 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.