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WTI Reaching For $100; Beijing Lockdown Speculation Simmers

OIL

WTI is ~+$1.10 and Brent is ~+$1.40, printing $99.60 and $103.70 respectively and operating around session highs at typing.

  • To recap, both benchmarks rose from worst levels on Monday to ultimately close between ~$3.50 to ~$4 lower apiece, with downward pressure coming from elevated worry re: impacted Chinese energy demand as well as a continued rally in the USD (DXY), with the latter hitting two-year highs during the session.
  • Looking to China, the COVID outbreak in the nation’s capital has expanded, with 33 fresh cases reported for Monday, spurring authorities to announce mass testing for most of Beijing’s population (~21mn). Some media reports have pointed to limited stockpiling behaviour amongst residents in preparation for a lockdown (a possible scenario given current “dynamic COVID-Zero” posture), although no such measures have been announced so far.
  • Elsewhere, RTRS and BBG source reports have pointed to Russian oil giant Rosneft’s difficulty in awarding a tender for at least ~37mn bbls of Urals crude for May and June after demanding prepayment in roubles, giving a glimpse into the potential for disruptions in Russia crude supplies as European buyers continue to stay away.
  • A note that this comes amidst BBG source reports of some Asian buyers shunning Russian Sokol-grade crude in the country’s east primarily over marine insurance concerns after sanctions were imposed on a Russian tanker company used to ship the crude, highlighting another possible avenue for supply disruption.

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