Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The NBH is likely to maintain the pace of its policy tightening and hike its ‘core’ policy rate by 100bps today (1pm London), which would levitate the benchmark rate to 5.4% (highest since January 2013).
- It is important that the NBH keeps a hawkish policy to limit the downside risk on the forint in order to anchor inflation expectations.
- The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate after pausing at 6.15% in the past month.
Link to full publication:
NBH CB Prev - April 26 - F.pdf
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is likely to maintain the pace of its policy tightening and hike its ‘core’ policy rate by 100bps on April 26, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 5.4% (highest since January 2013). The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate after pausing at 6.15% in the past month.
NBH terminal rate has been revised to the upside due to the surge in energy and food prices and the HUF weakness caused by the Ukraine war shock. We saw that inflation accelerated to 8.5% in March and continues to diverge significantly from the NBH 4% upper tolerance band (figure 1, left frame). According to Cabinet Minister Gulyas, inflation would be at 13% in March in the absence of price caps.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.