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Record Gap In Consumer Confidence Measures Maintained

US
  • The largely sideways move in the Conference Board present situation (white line below) largely maintains the record gap to U.Mich current economic conditions from the preliminary April release (yellow).
  • The Conf. Board survey tends to place more weight on the labor market whilst the U.Mich survey is more heavily impacted by inflation and broader business conditions.
  • Just shy of March’s record, the gap (green) would historically suggest the Treasury curve could flatten further, supporting recently renewed growth fears.

U.Mich minus Conference Board current conditions vs UST 2s10sSource: Bloomberg

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