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NBH Raises Policy Rate to 5.4%, 30bps Hike Expected On Depo Rate

HUNGARY
  • The NBH maintained the pace of its tightening cycle and raised the policy rate by 100bps to 5.4% (as expected) at yesterday’s meeting.
  • In its statement, the NBH mentioned again that it is important to continue to hike rates in order to anchor inflation expectations and mitigate second-round inflation risks.
  • NBH sees CPI back to 3% target in H1 2024 and forecasts an average inflation of 9% for 2022.
  • The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate on Thursday after pausing at 6.15% in the past month.
  • Government spokesperson Alexandra Szentkiralyi said yesterday that PM Orban’s cabinet may raise pensions by another 2%-3% in the summer after a 5% increase earlier this year (BBG).
  • The rise in PLN volatility has also been weighing on HUF, with EURHUF approaching its 380 resistance after finding support at 370 on Monday.
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