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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Today’s data highlights are the flash Spanish and German inflation estimates for April, Italian sentiment indicators and US GDP and personal consumption.
Spanish Flash Inflation (0800 BST)
The consensus is seeing a 0.8pp deceleration in Spanish inflation in the April flash, bringing HICP back to +9.0% y/y. More recent estimates are looking for a fall back into the 8% range, and confidence that inflation has peaked is strong following last month’s 2.2pp surprise jump. On the month, a small +0.4% increase is expected, down from +3.9% m/m in March, in part on lower electricity costs.
Italian Business/Consumer Confidence (0900 BST)
Following gloomy German consumer confidence seen in yesterday’s dive, however, sentiment is seen moderating by a mere 0.8 points to the breakeven of 100 following last month’s 11.4-point crash to a 12-month low.
An upside surprise in today’s Italian print will partly clarify why the Eurozone flash consumer confidence has ticked upwards for April (no information was provided in the preliminary release).
Germany Flash Inflation (1300 BST)
Following the morning round of German state CPI numbers, German inflation is seen softening 0.1pp to +7.2% y/y and by a substantial 2pp to +0.5% m/m in the April flash estimate. HICP is set to remain unchanged at +7.6% y/y.
Along with the Spanish print, whether April is the month of reversal appears unlikely against a backdrop of soaring energy prices, worsened supply-chain disruptions and diving consumer confidence.
April data (and May) will be important to watch, following talk of a July kick-off to the tightening cycle.
US Q1 GDP / Personal Consumption (1330 BST)
The Q1 advance GDP data this afternoon highlights waning US growth seen at the beginning of the year. +1.0% q/q growth is anticipated, following +6.9% q/q in Q4 2021. Personal consumption is projected to continue to recover, up 1pp to 3.5% q/q. With a 50bp hike not ruled out for the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, taming inflation remains the key line of focus for the US.
Key policymaker appearances for today include the ECB’s Luis de Guindos and Frank Elderson, as the BOE and Fed are in their blackout periods. The ECB will publish their May economic bulletin.| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 28/04/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/04/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** | | SE | GDP |
| 28/04/2022 | 0700/0900 | ** | | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 28/04/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28/04/2022 | 0700/0900 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos Presents Annual Report 2021 | |
| 28/04/2022 | 0730/0930 | ** | | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate |
| 28/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 28/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB publishes May economic bulletin | |
| 28/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/04/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/04/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | Saxony CPI |
| 28/04/2022 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 28/04/2022 | - |  | JP | Bank of Japan policy meeting | |
| 28/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Payroll employment |
| 28/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 28/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP (adv) |
| 28/04/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 28/04/2022 | 1400/1600 | | EU | ECB Elderson Panels ECOSOC UN Forum | |
| 28/04/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 28/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 28/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 28/04/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 28/04/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.