Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
All eyes will be on US Non-Farm Payrolls to wrap up the week. Other data include German trade stats, French IP, Turkish CPI, and final services PMIs ahead of the US ISM Services index in the late afternoon.
German Trade (0700 BST)
Germany’s trade balance is expected to expand to EUR 4.3bln in April, following EUR 3.2bln seen in March. Exports are seen recovering to +1.0% m/m (Mar -3.3%) and imports slipping to -2.0% m/m (Mar +3.4%). This follows the March release which saw a 62.3% reduction in exports to Russia following the implementation of sanctions due to the Ukraine invasion. The April data will shed further light upon the ceasing of trade between the countries.
French Industrial Production (0745 BST)
A stagnation of French industrial production is forecasted for the April data, with a damp +0.2% m/m uptick on March, which saw a 0.5% m/m contraction. IP will likely flatline at 0.0% when compared to April 2021 as lockdown restrictions began easing and production was slow in the region.
Turkey CPI (0800 BST)
An almost 5pp jump to +74.70% y/y inflation rate has been forecasted for Turkey’s May print, albeit prices will accelerate slightly slower at +4.0% m/m following an astounding +7.25% m/m in April. This would bring inflation to a fresh 20-year high, with the lira set to weaken further. Food price inflation remains concerning in Turkey, registered at +89.1% y/y in April, which was almost +20pp on the March surge.
The core index is expected to rise 3.4pp to 55.72% y/y.
Final Services PMIs
The first and final Spanish and Italian service PMIs are due this morning, with a 1.1-point decrease to 56.0 pencilled in for Spain at 0815 BST and a 1.2-point dip to 54.5 expected for Italy. These follow significant rebounds seen in the strong April readings as service demand remained robust in the region on the back of delayed post-lockdown demand.
French, German, Eurozone and US final prints are expected to be confirmed, with a weakening in France (-0.5 points), Germany (-1.3 points), the Eurozone (-1.4 points), the US (-2.1 points) and the UK (-7.1 points), the latter being a substantial 5.2-points below forecasts. As inflation cuts into household disposable incomes, demand for services is beginning to fade.
Eurozone Retail Trade (1000 BST)
All but stagnant April retail sales growth of +0.2% m/m is forecasted for Euro area retail sales, following the contraction of 0.4% m/m in March.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (1330 BST)
Today’s non-farm payrolls data for May will point towards the US labour market edging closer to full saturation. The change in payrolls is forecasted at +325k, around 103k softer than seen in April.
This leaves the unemployment rate projected to edge down a further 0.1pp to 3.5% in May, a level last seen in pre-pandemic January and February 2020 and previously a 1969 low.
The upcoming June 14-15 FOMC meeting sees another 50bp hike is on the cards. Markets will be closely watching today’s data following recent Fed-speak concerning a pause in the tightening cycle after the July meet.
ISM Services (1500 BST)
The ISM Services Index closely follows the final print of the S&P Global Services PMI, seen being confirmed at 53.5. A 0.6-point step down to 56.5 is anticipated for ISM services in May, the same level as seen in February at the tail-end of the Omicron outbreak.
Just one key policymaker appearance is on Friday’s schedule, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard speaking on the Community Reinvestment Act.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Period | Flag | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Apr |  | DE | Trade balance exports m/m | -3.3 | 1.5 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Apr | | DE | Trade balance imports m/m | 3.3 | -0.1 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Apr | | DE | Trade balance m/m | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 03/06/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Apr |  | FR | Industrial Production m/m | -0.5 | 0.2 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Apr | | FR | Industrial Production y/y | 0.1 | 0.5 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Apr | | FR | Manufacturing Prod m/m | -0.3 | -- | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Apr | | FR | Manufacturing Prod y/y | 1.5 | -- | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0700/0300 | * | May |  | TR | CPI m/m | 7.25 | 3.78 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0700/0300 | * | May | | TR | CPI y/y | 69.97 | 73.5 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** | May |  | ES | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** | May |  | IT | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | 55.7 | 54.5 | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** | May | | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | 58.4 | 58.4 | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | May | | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | 56.3f | 56.3 | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | May |  | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | 56.3f | 56.3 | |
| 03/06/2022 | 0800/1000 | * | Jun |  | NO | Unemployment Rate | -- | -- | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Apr | | EU | Retail Sales m/m | -0.4 | 0.4 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Apr | | EU | Retail Sales y/y wda | 0.8 | 5.1 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May |  | US | Average Hourly Earnings, m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May | | US | Average Workweek, All Workers | 34.6 | 34.6 | hrs |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May | | US | Nonfarm Payrolls | 428.0 | 325 | (k) |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May | | US | Prev Nonfarm Payrolls, Rev | 428.0 | -- | (k) |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May | | US | Private Payrolls | 406.0 | 314 | (k) |
| 03/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | May | | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.6 | 3.5 | % |
| 03/06/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | May | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | May | | US | ISM Non-manufacturing Index | 57.1 | 56.6 |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.