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CS See Core CPI Below Consensus But Upside Risk

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Credit Suisse see core CPI slowing slightly to +0.4% M/M in May (cons. 0.5%) after the reacceleration to 0.6% in April, which should lead to a continued decline in the year-ago rate from 6.2% to 5.8% Y/Y. Risks could be skewed to the upside from goods inflation as we haven’t seen the pass-through from supply chain disruptions from China lockdowns.
  • Headline is seen stronger at +0.7% M/M (cons. 0.7%) and an unchanged 8.3% Y/Y, boosted by food and energy driven by gasoline prices and disruptions to supply chains due to the war in Ukraine.
  • They expect strong summer travel and a continued shift from goods to services spending to support an elevated level of airfare, but growth should slow sharply from the past two months.
  • Used cars expected to be flat after falling in the past three months as early Manheim data for wholesale prices in May showed a surprise pickup.
  • Shelter is seen remaining strong with both home and rent price appreciation elevated.
  • The Fed is set on raising rates by 50bps at the June and July meeting, but is looking for signs of deceleration in inflation to support shifting to 25bps in September.
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