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Santander Sees Further 75bps Hike

POLAND
  • The signals ahead of this meeting were ambiguous: CPI did not exceed expectations (it was even a notch below our estimate), but this was a matter of high forecasts rather than a calming of the inflation trend.
  • Moreover, core inflation played a bigger role in further acceleration of inflation than we had anticipated (and, according to our estimates, set another all-time high), which suggests that fighting the very high CPI dynamics will be even more difficult and may require a stronger monetary policy tightening.
  • In our view, the MPC will raise rates again by 75 bps. The market has internalised Adam Glapiński's words that the rate hikes will continue until the MPC becomes convinced that inflation will fall, and seeing the strength of the CPI uptrend, the accumulation of risks on the higher side, and rebounding oil prices, it has started to see the end of rate hikes higher and later (roughly in 6 months at the level of c. 7.5%).
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