June 09, 2022 19:37 GMT
- CIBC are broadly in line with consensus for Friday's employment report, looking for employment to have increased 30k in May after the 15k in April.
- They see hiring led by rebounding service areas such as food & accommodation and transportation, but rate sensitive real estate and construction sectors to weigh.
- That growth would be close to population growth and leaves the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.2% assuming no move in labour force participation.
- Wage growth is likely to pick up fairly significantly over the next few months although is mainly due to base effects from low wage service workers being rehired in the late spring/early summer in 2021.