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April activity data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • A big week for the UK kicks off this morning with the release of the April activity and trade data.
  • Consensus looks for UK monthly GDP to have inched higher in April, rising 0.1% and reversing the 0.1% decline seen in March. However, on a 3m/3m basis, growth is expected to slow to 0.4% from 0.8% the seen in March.
  • The service sector is expected to mirror the wider economy, edging higher from the modest contraction seen in the the previous set of data. IP and manufacturing are expected to see slightly bigger rises after their bigger falls in March.
  • At writing, markets were pricing in around 37bp for this week's MPC meeting, around a 45% probability of a 50bp hike this week (with 25bp fully priced in). We think tomorrow's labour market data has more market-moving potential but do see some two-way risk to today's print for UK markets, too. A stronger print may be seen by the market to embolden some MPC members who may be considering a 50bp hike while a weaker print would highlight concerns to keep raising rates more gradually.
  • As with other recent UK data prints, we would expect to see an initial reaction in the pound on a surprise when the data is first released, but the main move to happen when SONIA futures open at 7:30BST.
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