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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • In the last major data release ahead of this week's MPC meeting, labour market data will be released at 7:00BST with data for April (and the HMRC realtime data for May).
  • The main focus will be on earnings (after the last report saw very strong earnings numbers. Although this was largely driven by bonus payments, the single-month data for March was still the highest number on record). earnings are expected to increase further to 7.4% 3m/Y including bonus (from 7.0%) but ex-bonus wages are expected to fall a little to 4.0% 3m/Y (from 4.2%).
  • The unemployment rate is expected to edge down a further 0.1pp to 3.6%.
  • Following April’s strong 121,000 increase in payrolled employees change, consensus looks for May to see a softer 70,000 increase as labour market conditions become more saturated, as foreshadowed by PMI survey data.
  • Markets will be very sensitive to labour market data. A strong upside surprise to wages may well see more priced in for this weeks meeting (around 33bp is priced at present, so around a 1/3 probability of a 50bp hike). A negative surprise could see the rest of the curve flatten somewhat, with 77bp currently priced in by the August meeting.
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