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TD has upped its rate call for the June and July FOMC meetings, now seeing 75bp hikes at each.

  • The acceleration to 75bp hikes "shows the Fed is more determined to do what it takes to end the inflation overshoot as rapidly as possible even if that raises the chance of a hard landing in 2023."
  • After reaching "neutral" after the July hike, TD expects the pace to drop to 50bp for hikes in Sep and Nov, and 25bp for the next 2 meetings for a terminal rate of "at least" 3.75-4.00%.
  • They had previously seen a 3.25-3.50% terminal rate, with 50bp in rate cuts in 2024.

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