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Latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow Implies Technical Recession (Barely)

US

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is now an unrounded -0.0017% for the second quarter after today's retail trade and import/export price figures - technically that would represent a first-half recession, given the GDP contraction in the 1st quarter.

  • "After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively."

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The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is now an unrounded -0.0017% for the second quarter after today's retail trade and import/export price figures - technically that would represent a first-half recession, given the GDP contraction in the 1st quarter.

  • "After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively."