CDU Lead Over Scholz's SPD Hits New Post-Election High

The lead for the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) over Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in the latest opinion poll from INSA is the widest recorded since the formation of the incumbent 'traffic light' gov't.

• INSA poll: CDU/CSU: 28% (+1), Green: 21% (=), SPD: 19.5% (-0.5), AfD: 10% (=), FDP: 9.5% (+0.5), LINKE: 4% (=), +/- vs. 13-17 June 2022. Fieldwork: 17-20 June 2022. Sample size: 1,501
• While Scholz's stance on the war in Ukraine regarding supplies of weaponry to Kyiv, the need to continue purchasing Russian gas, and seeking not to overly antagonise Moscow is broadly in line with the German public, Scholz's messaging on the issue has been seen as a problem contributing to his party's declining support.
• Speaking to Politico, Frank Brettschneider, a comms expert at Hohenheim University, stated that "By making unclear statements, Olaf Scholz leaves himself room for maneuver internally, but externally he leaves the impression of a vague policy and weak leadership,”
• Next electoral contest in Germany is not until 9 October, when the northwestern state of Lower Saxony goes to the polls. There, the regional gov't is a 'grand coalition' of the SPD and CDU, led by the former. Polls show the SPD retaining a lead over the CDU at present, but should the CDU manage to emerge as the largest party it could heap further pressure on the chancellor.